Thursday, October 18, 2007

8:50 AM - Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Outlook

This is their thoughts on the day...

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH INTO ONTARIO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE EVEN STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT AFFECTED PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND OZARKS YESTERDAY...AND WILL SERVE TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE DEEP SURFACE LOW NOW ENTERING WESTERN IOWA. THE IOWA LOW WILL DRAW A BROAD CURRENT OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN.

AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS...THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE IOWA LOW.

WITH JET STREAM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 120 MPH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SERVE AS FUEL...THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLS. WITH A BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THESE ROTATING STORMS COULD BECOME LONG-LIVED AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AND POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

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