Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Overnight Cold / Next Weeks Snow Storm

I guess I was so focused on the snow I missed the downward spiral of temperatures for tonight. An overnight low near zero plus 10 MPH winds will make for a bitter cold windchill. I think this combined with poor road conditions will generate a two hour delay for area schools.

As for the storm next week, the NWS office in Indianapolis made this comment about it in the afternoon AFD (Area Forecast Discussion)...

THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A BIG LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SPREADING A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WHAT IS IN QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS BASICALLY WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT INDIANA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW. BUT THE LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS SO IT WOULD LIKELY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER IF THIS LOW TRACKS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS INSTEAD
IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.

The NWS Office in northern Indiana had this to say in their AFD...

AS SUGGESTED BY HPC THIS MORNING...THIS EVOLUTION IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE UPPER PATTERN. RIGHT NOW...THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD STILL MISS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA TO THE EAST...WITH LAKE EFFECT SHSN LIKELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEL RECENT TRENDS AND THE PROPENSITY THIS SEASON FOR A WESTWARD SHIFT IN STORM TRACK WITH TIME...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHC OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

No comments: