Monday, February 11, 2008

Snow Update (including my final call)

This is a tough forecast for several reasons. The recent history of busted forecasts due to the trend of storms going to the northwest and dry slot weigh on everyone’s mind. We also had a lot of marginal temperatures causing mixing issues with sleet, freezing rain/ice, and rain. This set up is a little different however.

We have cold temperatures in place and they will remain so no mixing issues this time. (There could be mixing issues along the Ohio River.) If there was a northwest trend with this storm, we actually would be better off since the heavy snow bands are south and east of us.

The dry slot concern does remain. The storm is made up of two systems merging together over central Illinois and Indiana. Most of the precipitation is associated storm to our southwest coming up from Missouri. There is another system moving in from Iowa. The two systems could create an area of little precipitation which looks to track right across Lafayette to Kokomo.

The good news is the precipitation ratios will be very good with this storm so a little will go a long way.

My forecast for Howard County and Kokomo is 2-3 inches of the white stuff tapering to flurries by 9 AM Tuesday morning. Schools would likely be on a 2 hour delay.

If you are heading south, expect some great accumulations from Indianapolis on south. Columbus to Seymour could see 8-10 inches.

The NWS has not updated its map and is calling for total accumulations of 3-5 inches for Howard County.

One final note: There is a potential storm for the upcoming weekend (Friday thru Sunday). The details are very sketchy but it is something to look at considering many people will be traveling north for Girls Basketball Regionals on Saturday. Also of note is I will be without Internet access for most of Friday into Sunday morning while on a trip. Details on all that later…

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