Thursday, February 21, 2008

My call for the storm...

The storm is ready to spin up some action tomorrow. There are lots of different amateur and professional forecasters with as many different ideas. There are a handful of variables in play and one or more of these could have a dramatic effect on the outcome of precipitation and amounts.

One is the temperatures aloft. Surface temperatures are fine but some warm air aloft could bring sleet or freezing rain or even ice. Sleet seems to be the most discussed for our area but it will be a close call. In the past 24 hours the sleet line has moved 150 miles north.

The second variable is the precipitation amounts. Southern Indiana and Kentucky gets a lot more then we receive. In fact we seem to be very near the northern most edge for precipitation leading to accumulating snow. If this system goes north like so many past systems, we could get a lot of snow.

Those are the two biggest variables with the system. At this point we do look to not have any devastating ice event but could see a small amount (1/4” or less) of freezing rain. This will come in the middle of the multi-day winter weather event.

Some early snow will come tomorrow afternoon with the majority falling in the overnight before tapering off to freezing rain on Friday. Look for additional snow Friday evening through Saturday morning.

My call with this system currently is 2-4 inches by 7 AM Friday and additional 1-2 inches by 7 AM Saturday.

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