Wednesday, January 5, 2011

The 6-10 day analog and outlook...

The 6-10 day analog takes a look at the upper air patten and find previous patterns from 1950 to 1999 which match and ranks them.  The January 1978 blizzard has been making its way up the chart on both the 8-14 and 6-10 day analogs.  That would seem to be a good thing for snow lovers.

However I decided to do a little bit more checking on all of the dates on the 6-10 day analog.  While the January 1978 date has a blizzard, not everything comes up snowy.  The snows were all over the road from nuisance snows to moderate and of course the blizzard.

What was a common theme were cold temperatures.  Brutal cold could be found every time.  So I guess the idea of a displaced polar vortex moving over the US looks like a solid idea.  The good news is the very coldest should miss our area.

The unfortunate news is the snow threat is also not forecast to threat for our area.

The hazards map also bears out these facts.

With these facts in mind and with what I keep seeing as model trends, I love the idea of a huge snow for Kokomo and vicinity for early next week but cannot support it.  Trust me when I say I hope I am wrong and we get pounded.  :-)

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