Sunday, January 30, 2011

Nowcasting

This storm is all but impossible to forecast for our area.  As expected, the models did a little dance this morning shifting this northwest.  Not a lot but we have trended out of the record historical snows amounts.  Those looks to be for Chicago.  (Their all time record of 23" will probably fall.)

For Kokomo and Howard County, we are riding the line of mixed wintry precipitation.  Making a call as to which one wins out is not possible right now.  There is a lot of speculation and even the NWS is sending a mix message right now if you compare the forecast for Bunker Hill from the Northern Indiana Office and Kokomo forecast from Indianapolis. 

This will probably be a nowcast where we really won't know until it is almost here or happening.  I think if anyone makes a final call now, they are foolish.  I also think it is not a good idea to think this thing has trended northwest and will now be a miss for central Indiana.

Options range from modest snow accumulations (4-6 inches) with sleet on the order of a couple inches or more.  The snowiest solutions still come in the 14-16 inch range and no mixing issues.  Icing doesn't seem like a serious threat for here right now but some minor amounts of a quarter of an inch is possible.

A few extremely key points are this will be a system in two waves.  The first way will be Monday evening into Tuesday morning.  You might look around Tuesday morning and think we busted.  That will be a lull because by Tuesday evening, the heaviest amount of precipitation will be falling in one form or another. If snow, one to two inches per hour into Wednesday morning.  Sleet or ice would be equally as aggressive with their accumulations and impacts.  I would guess snow plows will park Tuesday evening when they see no hope of keeping up.

Winds will also be a significant factor.  Snow will be blowing and drifting into Thursday.  Colder temperatures will follow with lows near zero and highs in the teens for Thursday and Friday. If only small amounts of ice or sleet accumulates, the winds could cause power outages.

Here is the outage make for Duke Energy for Indiana - http://www.duke-energy.com/indiana/outages/current.asp#outagemap

Please do prepare to be home bound through the end of the week.  Make sure you have medicine, non perishable food (and a non electric can opener) and water.  A bathtub of water might be handy for those with a well and no electricity.  You can use it to flush.  :) 

Batteries for a flash light and radio and keep your cell phones on charge.

I will update later this evening but I think this video I recorded of the Indianapolis NWS on The Weather Channel says it all.  (This was from this morning.)


And before anyone asks...

I predict Snow Days for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday for ALL Howard County School.

3 comments:

Angela Huffer said...

I still don't believe it.!! the amounts are going down on all station now!! We will be a miss yet again..lol

Scott said...

I was blown away that Jude Redfield jumped ship after what had to be a couple of model runs! I can't see how we would bust totally, but stranger things have happened!

Gregory said...

Sorry Jim. I feel responsible because I preped for the worst today. OH well if ANYTHING happens I will be ready....