Monday, December 20, 2010

Overnight & the Christmas Storm...

The clipper isn't losing its punch as it moves into our area as thought.  Generally Indiana was to get just receive the leftovers.  However this looks like an over performer.  Some areas nearby will top 4 inches while we should see a couple of inches.  The storm is diving southeast and we started later than places like Lafayette and our duration will be shorter.  A changeover to frozen precipitation (sleet/rain) should occur after 1 to 2 AM.  The extent of the glaze on roadways will be the determining factor for schools.  I am not sure the snow will make a difference on the call.

On to the Christmas storm everyone is talking about.  It is difficult to narrow down the track at this time.  Besides the typical model variations, the 12z runs from today took some unexpected dives south.  One would expect some corrections with tonight's runs.  Even without a firm track, there are a few things we can discuss.

This is not some monster blizzard that will go down in the history books are one of the worst.  This instead is a widespread 3 to 6 inch storm with some 8 to 10 inch bands.  Snow could cover an area from I-40 to 1-90 and from the Rockies to the east coast.  All happening from late Wednesday night through Sunday.  You can imagine the travel disruptions if this happens over the Christmas weekend.

Currently, the NWS didn't buy the extreme southern solutions.  That would be bad for us.  However they didn't completely discount it either.  The noticeable changes from the NWS were the scaling back on the amounts of accumulating snow locally.  Still they show us in the 3 to 5 inch range across the area. 

I think it will be tomorrow afternoon before the solutions start to come to consensus and we can talk more about the track and timing.  Hopefully it will all be laid out come Wednesday morning.  Hopefully.

1 comment:

Chris in Tipton said...

3.0 on the nose here in Tipton. I think you are dead on with the Christmas storm. Even with a good track.....8" looks like a nice accumulation potential. The models this year....are once again having trouble with tracks this far are correct...I hope to know more about this storm in about 24 hours.