Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Stupid Weather Models...

First I will say we had a great snow last night and I am pleasantly surprised.  I will have a total later but I looks like we are nearing a foot of snow already for December.

The problems this morning remain the same.  What is the storm track, does it phase and if so, when, and who gets bombed?

In general, the European model seems to be considered the King and normally sniffs out the track and intensity before all others.  The GFS is one of several American models and occasionally scores over the King but not often.  On Sunday both models agreed on the Christmas storm and showed a really nice hit for most in the midwest and Ohio valley and further east.

On Monday the Euro decided to jump south and leave us with nothing.  Normally one would expect a correction by the Euro or the GFS (and others) would start trending in that direction.  Nope.  There are still two very distinct solutions with very different outcomes and impacts for our region.

The short range models are just beginning to key in on the system and have some spread to them but none nearly as south as the Euro.  So what to think?  Still waiting for something to budge one way or another.  Of course I have my preference which solution I want to win out but anything and everything remains on the table for now.

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