Final Comments on the Storm...

Let's close out the books on the weekend snow storm. However before we go let's look back on the how this one played out.

Tuesday was the first mention of a winter storm for the weekend. It came along with the mention of snow for Thursday. The Thursday 1-2" forecast busted when the temperatures were too warm and rain fell instead of snow. The Tuesday forecast for the weekend was 2-4".

The real kicker was the weekend snow storm was supposed to be an east coast monster. It was to pass lower in the Ohio/Tennessee Valley. The east coast weather weenies were beating their collective chest talking about snow. Nothing made Howard County stand out during the storm. My 2-4" forecast was based upon a slightly more northern track I thought storm would end up taking.

Thursday brought the weather forecast computer models to 48 hours of the storm and it was clear there was a northwest track to the storm. The snow totals were going up for our area and the Northern Indiana National Weather Service Office began hinting at 4-6". They even provided a weather story map with that forecast.

The Indianapolis office played this one more conservative and didn't up the snow totals. As the 00z model runs came in around 9-11 PM Thursday night it became very apparent that the I-95 east coast people lost their storm to rain and a sleet mix. My favorite comment came from a senior meteorologist from the National Weather Service who said "...stretch of 12-18" from the raw NAM from STL to IND to LIMA,OH to near TOL and DET. Lima OH gets 18" per the raw data. Use with a large grain of salt! But interesting none the less." Did he nail the intensity of the storm early or what?

My Thursday ended with a call for 6-8" with us seeing the high side of that amount and 90% call for cancelled sports activities at area schools. That happened!

Friday morning was the start to a wild and crazy forecast day. We had a 6-10" forecast from the northern NWS office and conservative 4-6" from Indy. The snow maps for the NAM forecast models showed a weekend total of 10-12". I really thought that was high and no way that forecast would verify.

As Friday progressed, each model run brought more and more craziness. Winter Storm Warnings were issued and 6-10" forecasts came our for Howard County from both NWS offices around lunch. The snow forecast was out to the public now and the Friday evening saw a madhouse at local stores with the typical run on staple items (milk, bread, eggs...). News reports showed long lines at the department and grocery stores.

Also some people in Chicago started to realized they were going to see a nice surprise snow. Winter Storm Warnings and Heavy Snow Warnings were going up from Plain States to New England. However the really craziness came with the 00z model run of the NAM.

It is generally considered the NAM is very reliable and accurate within 72 hours. The final path of the storm, the precipitation totals, and the ever so important line where snow changes to sleet/freezing rain was on everybodies mind. The NAM came up with unthinkable returns for snow totals of 15-20" Oh my!

The GFS model which was the first model to show and track the storm was much more conservative with its totals. That finally made me increase my forecast locally for 12-14". We also knew there would be a small snowfall in the morning and then the heavy stuff falling overnight.

When I awoke on Saturday, I had an uneasy feeling with the big forecast I made. Something told me I was caught up in model hype and listening to other weather weenies online. While I was teetering, others including TV meteorologists and NWS forecasters were not wavering. They were going for a huge storm. I guess I was on track. Well...

The morning didn't go as planned. The early snow of 3-4" didn't fall. Maybe an inch came down and the sleet/snow line was way closer south than I wanted. The northwest track of the storm was also happening which made me nervous. Could we get missed?

The late afternoon and evening brought some wavering from the NWS. The Indianapolis office dropped our totals to 4-6". However nobody else followed suit and still believed the overnight storm totals would be significant.

When he evening precipitation came, it brought an unexpected surprise. Sleet for several hours. Sleet was unexpected this far north. Finally after midnight the snow started to fall. I was also still assured we were going to see big snow.

When I finally look out at 5 AN after a few hours of sleep, I saw snow on the ground and more falling down. Not as much as I had hoped but still enough. It kept coming down for 2-3 more hours before tapering off.

Unexpectedly was the winds were not as high as forecast. Everyone had forecast 20-40 MPH winds and that didn't materialize. There were winds but the blizzard like conditions were not in Howard County.

An afternoon trip out did show some cleared state roads but snow packed and slick roads for the county roads and side streets. I was going to be confident in school delay forecast for Monday but they beat me to the punch and called it before I even started writing my storm wrap up.

In the end Howard County and Kokomo had about 5" on the ground. Some of the middle layers were packed well due to the sleet. It was not light and fluffy. Counties to the west and north did make out well with snow totals from 10-18". A good snow total for a December storm.

What can we expect for the future? Some snow and rain is forecast for later in the week in a couple of different rounds. It does seem winter storms are coming through here like trains on a track. A white Christmas? I will explore that more as the week goes by.

I want to personally thank everyone that reads the blog and visits the website. I do enjoy hearing from everyone as well. Comments or emails are always welcome.