Sunday, January 10, 2010

Our Next Clipper System & Late Week Forecast

Another clipper will hit Indiana on Monday. The snow should hit right around the morning drive into work or school. However it won't turn like last time. Around one inch or less will fall by evening. After the clipper passes, lake effect snow will again crank up and we could continue to see snow at times through Tuesday. The primary issue will be slick driving conditions so as always slow down and allow plenty of stopping distance. (I don't expect any school delays or cancellations from the system.)

Speaking of lake effect snow, Friday night saw LES over a wide area of the northern 2/3 of Indiana. In central Indiana, we were in the sweet spot when looking at the snowfall map. (Well, not Greentown; sorry.)

The end of the week is still a huge question mark. More and more it does seem to want to warm up and the system looks to track south so what moisture we do see from the Gulf of Mexico will be rain. Unlike clipper systems which come down with the cold air, the systems from the south can bring up warm air with the moisture and cause mixing issues with the precipitation. We need to keep watching to determine what will be our fate.

Long Range

The group thinking in the weather world is we will see a warming trend for the latter portions of January. Some see it as just more seasonal which would be a warm up from the deep freeze pattern we have been experiencing. Other think it flips completely the other way and we see almost spring like temperatures. A couple of professional meteorologists are thinking the cold pattern is saved at the last minute and we continue the deep freeze. I think a more relaxed period will happen where we will continue to see some snow chances.

However I will show the GFS which is showing a solid warm up in the last portion of the forecast range. The GFS is usually fantasy land in this range but it can lock correctly into broad and wide scale patterns while still being wrong on the details. Any, take a look...

Just a follow up mention about last nights low temperatures. We didn't dip below zero as many had forecast. I saw the writing on the wall yesterday morning and adjusted my forecast accordingly. Other didn't. *smile* We hit 6.2 for our low. That is still darn cold though...

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