Friday, February 19, 2010


A meteorologist who has no vested interest in wishcasting or bittercasting the outcome of the storm said this storm will be a heart breaker for most of us.  Two things were pointed out which when upon careful review make a lot of sense.  The polar vortex which plunged down very strong on some more recent storm causing them to go south is going to plunge down with Arctic air behind the storm. 


We also typically use the 850mb (5000 ft.) temperature freeze line as the divider between rain and snow.  While surface temps can effect how well the snow sticks, the 850mb line is usually the correct way to make the determination.  However in this case, a large pool of warm air makes it all the way to 900mb hovering just below the 850mb line.  When glancing at the 850mb maps, you think all is well with just some surface temperature issues but that doesn't appear to be the case in this instance. 

I will keep my 2-4" first call out there for now on the Sunday-Monday system but I suspect we are going going to be dealing with a cold rain, a lot of melting snow, and flooding.  I really am sorry this isn't going to turn out well for us.  I had hoped we would get hammered by the snow but it is looking bleak.  I am also sorry I have been so excited with this system only to have it fade.  Dumb weather.  Of course the snow system could return but we are getting close enough that huge changes would seem unlikely.

No comments: