Thursday, February 4, 2010

snOMG! It's a Snowpocalypse!

OK, maybe I am slightly over exaggerating the situation but I do think we are looking very good for the snow.

Significant accumulating snow looks extremely likely overnight into Saturday. Additionally, strong gusty winds will cause blowing and drifting. The time-line shows an hour or two of sleet 1 to 2 or 3 AM. It will mix with snow so by morning, a dusting should be on the ground in Howard County and moderate snow will be ready to fall. By noon, about an inch of accumulation is expected with most of that falling between 7 and to noon.

This will be a heavy wet snow and not some of the light fluffy stuff we have had recently. It will be like cement and is commonly nicknamed heartattack snow. Deservedly so.

The snow will crank up and be falling heavy throughout the afternoon. By 4 PM, an additional inch or slightly more will have fallen and winds will be cranking at 15 to 20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.

The snow continues falling at a pretty good clip into the evening and overnight. By 1 AM, the heaviest snow will have ended with 4 to 6 inches on the ground. Another inch or two is possible through Saturday afternoon. I believe the final total will be 5 to 7 inches. Yes, I have raised my total for the storm.

Now how does this effect area schools tomorrow? I think it will be a mix of closed with the rest doing an early dismissal. Early dismissal will be a challenge for those that try it. Keeping walks clear as the heaviest snow will be in the afternoon.

There last model run did come in very, very juicy. If it were taken literally with it's snow total, we would be near 10 inches. That would likely precipitate some strong language in the forecasts and advisories and warnings from forecasters. That could cause everyone to play it safe and close. There are several other models yet to run which might offer support. Let's hope they do...

I will add an update to this as I find out additional information.

Update: Overall the GFS was a little less with the snow totals verifying more at the low end of the 5-7" call. Still, I feel good about the call. Night all!


Scott said...

Woo-hoo, bring it on, my plow is licking it's chops! Saw some of the latest models, juicy they are, lets keep that trend going!

Anonymous said...

i have heard that the models were under-done and its bigger than we all thought